How will the situation in Afghanistan impact on world politics?

"The course of events in Afghanistan will depend on whether the Taliban forces unite in a single center, or not".

The statement was made by political scientist Yusif Bagirzadeh, commenting on the events in Afghanistan, e-huquq.az reports.

He said that the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan was the world's number one topic today: “The most interesting issue is that the Taliban has completely taken control of the country in just two weeks. Of course, it is interesting that the Afghan army, which has been sponsored, armed, trained and even funded by the United States for 20 years, has not been able to stand in front of the Taliban. I reminded that the main role in the establishment and development of the Taliban, which was founded by Mullah Mohammad Omar and Abdul Ghani Biradar and called the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, belongs to Pakistan. The aim was to prevent the Soviet Union from invading Pakistan. In the 1980s, about 90,000 Afghans were trained by Pakistani special services. Between 1994 and 1999, according to some sources, 80,000 Pakistanis fought in the Taliban ranks in Afghanistan. Finally, the Pakistani-backed Taliban came to power in 1996 and remained in power until 2001, when the United States intervened.

“The current Taliban leader Heybatullah Akhundzadeh is considered one of the most important figures in the current political and military environment in Afghanistan”, the political scientist said. He was born in 1960 in the Penjvay district of Kandahar province and is from the Peshtun Nurzay tribe. He was educated in a madrassa and moved to Pakistan with his family during the Soviet occupation, emigrated and continued his education there. During the Soviet occupation, he participated in the war in Afghanistan and participated in the groups “Hizb-i Islami Halis” and “Harakat-i Inqilab-i Islam”. Later, he continued his activity in the field of education and became one of the most famous figures in the field of Islamic sciences in the region. He also worked as Chief Justice of the Sharia Courts of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. After the US occupation in 2001, he continued to hold senior positions within the Taliban. During this time, he was appointed head of the Taliban Ulema Committee. In 2015, with the death of the founding leader of the Taliban, Mullah Mohammad Omar, Mullah Akhtar became the deputy leader of the movement. He was elected Taliban leader in May 2016 after Mullah Mansour was killed in a US airstrike.
Now let's look at the reasons for the Taliban's takeover of all of Afghanistan in two weeks. In particular, even during the 20 years of the US presence in Afghanistan, the Taliban controlled many provinces of the country. While the US and NATO forces controlled most of the capital and major cities, the Taliban maintained its dominance mainly in rural areas. Considering that about 70% of Afghanistan's territory is rural, we can say that the Taliban's sphere of control has been quite wide for 20 years. But no one thought that in such a short time after the withdrawal of US troops, the Taliban would seize all power and control all of Afghanistan. There are a number of reasons for this. The first reason is the support of the people. The main reason for the people's support for the Taliban is the corruption of almost all existing governments in Afghanistan, the misallocation of financial resources in the country among the population, in other words, among the tribes, and as a result, the people's livelihood is deteriorating. It was these factors that led the country's tribal leaders to turn their backs on Kabul, and they saw the Taliban as a place of hope and salvation. As a result, the Afghan government has lost the support of tribes and clans.

On the other hand, the United States and its coalition partners have kept more than 150,000 troops in Afghanistan for many years. In addition to the "peacekeeping" contingent of a medium-sized country, there were Afghan Armed Forces servicemen who were paid as mercenaries. After the US withdrew its troops from Afghanistan, Afghan mercenaries were virtually unpaid, and they either took up arms and joined the Taliban, leaving their military equipment behind. The United States, which has been in the region for 20 years and has enough institutions and think tanks in Afghanistan, decided to leave Afghanistan because it knew the course of events and thought that it would be pointless to spend extra money. Because the money spent in Afghanistan over the years is quite large, reaching $ 1 trillion. The United States was well aware that the Taliban's army, which 20 years ago numbered only 40,000, had grown from 60,000 in 2014 to 200,000 today. Therefore, the most acceptable way was to withdraw from Afghanistan, and the United States did the same. But, of course, even when leaving the country, the United States had certain interests. This interest is related to Russia and China, the two biggest rivals of the United States. Afghanistan's location on the border with Central Asian republics, especially China and Tajikistan, allows both Russia and China to come under pressure. That's why the United States, which predicts how things will turn out, has created a multi-pronged combination. The first version was that a well-trained and well-equipped Afghan army was fighting the Taliban, leading to chaos and the Taliban heading to the Tajik-Uighur border with China to mobilize new forces. moves. As a result, Russia and China are inevitably involved in the conflict. This means that there is no talk of stability in the region for a long time, and the "one belt, one road" project, which will make China the world's strongest economy, is delayed. On the other hand, Russia, concerned about the outbreak of war on its borders, inevitably attracts a large military contingent to the territory of Tajikistan and the Central Asian republics. In other words, it is facing financial losses and is unable to deploy additional military contingents to areas where it faces NATO forces along almost all its borders. In other words, the Black Sea region, where NATO ships are riding, where serious threats are expected at any moment, the territories in the eastern part of the country, where Japan claims territorial claims, and areas of interest to Poland, such as Kaliningrad and Belarus, inevitably remain uncontrolled. A possible confrontation with the Taliban is forcing Russia to concentrate its military in the center of the threat and prevent it from focusing on other geographies. The threat is very real.

Thus, one of the strongest electorates of the Taliban today is the Tajiks. Almost all Taliban commanders are Tajiks. In fact, this allows us to speculate on where the Taliban will go after Afghanistan. Given that Tajikistan's population is also poor and that its leaders are pro-Russian, there is no doubt that the Taliban can easily find supporters in the country. There are many Uzbeks and Turkmen in the Taliban. That is why Moscow cannot leave Tajikistan alone, which it sees as a security and defense line on its southern borders. Otherwise, it could create the prospect of losing the region, which it sees as its natural boundaries, and the threat spilling over. Considering that Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia are Muslim republics in the Russian Federation, some of them do not hide their ideals of independence, but have been fighting for many years. may not pass. Moscow's demonstration of its weakness against the Taliban is a real example for Muslim communities that feel they have been severely exploited by Russia, and that the most effective ideological weapon against imperialism is the radical Islamic theories that the Taliban is surrounded by. This will lead Russia to civil wars, and division will be inevitable. That is why Russia is doomed to fight in another area without waiting for the war against it to spill over into its territory. In fact, Moscow has long been aware of this threat and has deployed its most powerful foreign troops in Tajikistan. We are talking about the 201st military base.

At first glance, it may seem that the failure of the Afghan army to resist the Taliban has thwarted US plans. Earlier, US President Joe Biden commented on the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, saying that the Afghan army is determined to fight for the security of their country independently, and that their military technical base, combat readiness and numerical superiority allow it. In other words, he did not expect the army to surrender without any resistance. But I don't think so, and the United States is ready for that. If the goal is to disrupt China's project and keep Russia under threat, the United States could do so in other ways at the hands of the Taliban. Although the Taliban may seem like a single force, it is actually made up of several military units, and no doubt some of them have direct contacts with the United States. It is possible to carry out the chaos I mentioned above using those forces. I repeat, although the Taliban seems to be a united force, this is not the case. Despite the fact that Pakistan and Qatar are the main supporters of the Taliban, other countries have not been idle during this period. Today, the Taliban includes forces affiliated with the United States, Britain, Iran and even China. It cannot be ruled out that these forces will not start fighting against each other. For example, the Taliban, which has seized power in Afghanistan, has called for women to join the next government and said it would treat women fairly, but in some areas there have been reports of women being executed solely on the pretext of dress. Or there are reports that some Taliban forces have hung up signs in Shiite areas of the capital and destroyed all slogans about Imam Hussein, the martyr of Karbala, while declaring that there will be no sectarian persecution. Given that 15-20 percent of the country's population is Shiite, there is no doubt that the Taliban's behavior will lead to a sectarian conflict in Afghanistan that is ready to explode at any moment. In short, it is very easy to create chaos in Afghanistan, and there are a lot of levers for that. Therefore, the possibility of a resumption of hostilities in Afghanistan in the near future is very high. The United States will try to destabilize the

"One Belt One Road" route around it, and to influence radical Islam in East Turkestan, which has won in the neighborhood, as well as to involve Russia in the process under threat. China will try to prevent this, to prevent the arrival of Turkestan Islamic Party fighters in Syria and their position there, and to ensure the security of its borders, including the strategically important Wahan Corridor and infrastructure projects. Russia will try to keep them away from its sphere of influence by bargaining with any wing of the Taliban. Turkey will try to use its relations with Pakistan and Qatar to stay in Afghanistan and so on.

By the way, I would like to note that participation in Afghanistan may allow Turkey to gain some strategic importance in the main geopolitical process of recent years in the US-China competition. Turkey may also have the opportunity to show its military prowess as a special factor, which will have a positive effect on Ankara's relations with its allies in the Western bloc.

Finally, I would like to emphasize once again that the Taliban is not a homogeneous structure, it is composed of various groups, and therefore the course of events in Afghanistan will depend on whether the Taliban forces unite in a single center. "